2:30 Jersey Stakes:
The opening race the Jersey Stakes is a 7 furlong race for 2 year olds. There is a big field but only 4 or 5 of these have a chance of winning in truth.
The main contenders are Le Brivido, Dream Castle, Daban, Whitecliffsofdover, Chessman and Winning Ways. The rest of them are 20/1 bar. Le Brivido the French raider ran a tremendous race when 2nd in the French 2000 Guineas.
He was only beaten on the line then in a heads up heads down surge to the line. I’m not so sure the form of that race was strong though. Rivet was only 3l back in 3rd and that horse has been well held by the likes of Barney Roy and Dream Castle in the past.
Barney Roy was a good winner of the St James Palace Stakes yesterday over Lancaster Bomber. Rivet was 8l back in 6th. Dream Castle was only 2l behind Barney Roy two runs back and also 2l behind him in the 2000 Guineas. Lancaster Bomber was only 1l ahead of him that day too.
The form looks strong and it’s holding up which means that Dream Castle should be a few lengths better than the French colt on collateral form.
Daban was 3rd in the 1000 Guineas, a race won by Winter. That horse followed up in the Irish 1000 Guineas.
The form of those in behind in those races is not strong though. I think Daban will run a nice race but I think the 2000 Guineas form is much stronger than the 1000 Guineas form.
Chessman and Winning Ways are improving handicappers but they both need to find a fair bit of improvement to win this.
I think Bacchus is an interesting outsider at odds of 66/1. This horse is weighted to majorly reverse the form with both Chessman and Winning Ways on their previous meetings. Kevin Manning is an eye catching booking too.
He could grab a place but as for win purposes it’s between Le Brivido and Dream Castle. Given Godolphins great form yesterday and the fact that he has the form to beat the French raider, the Frankel colt DREAM CASTLE at 7/2 is my selection for this race.
3:05 Queen Mary Stakes:
This race is a 5 furlong race for 2 year old fillies and it is usually run at a very quick pace. In recent years there’s been only one trainer to follow in this race and that is the American Wesley Ward. I tipped his horse Lady Aurelia to win yesterday and she duly hacked up.
That filly won this race last year and Wes Ward won the race the year before too with Acapulco.
He usually sends his best 2 year old every year for this race. He runs the well named Happy Like a Fool and you would be a fool not to back this horse. This filly demolished a small field on her only start at Keeneland running an incredibly quick time on fast ground.
She will love the ground here and the course will really suit her too. She was value last week for this race at 7/2 but she is as low as 5/4 now.
She has a great draw in stall 18 and she will blaze off in front.
The others may not be able to lay a glove on her. The only one that could put it up to her is the Clive Cox trained Heartache who was impressive when winning at Bath.
The top speed rating for that was very good. She’s the only that I can see keeping up with Happy Like a Fool.
Heartache is the each way value in the race at 13/2 but I can’t see HAPPY LIKE A FOOL getting
3:40 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes:
This Group 2 race is for fillies and mares is due to be run over 1 mile. It’s a highly competitive race as it is most years. Usherette won this race last year over Furia Curzada. Both are in the field again. Usherette won well that day but that race was run on soft ground.
She doesn’t have any form on this ground and she hasn’t been in the best of form this season either.
She should run a good race but I think they’ll just go too quick for her on this ground. It’s interesting to note that last year’s runner up Furia Cruzada is a much bigger price for the race this year.
Again though the soft ground last year was more to her favouring. The main two horses for me in this were Laugh Aloud and Qemah. Laugh Aloud would have been my main fancy for this race but she was withdrawn.
Qemah won at this meeting last year and is a group level performer, she’ll take plenty of beating today. Smart Call has decent form in South Africa but it’s hard to weigh that form up. She is talented but could well be out of her depth. She’d also prefer a further trip.
Pirouette has a lot of form tie in’s with most of the runners in the field. She doesn’t have a great win strike rate but I think she could hit the frame at odds of 40/1.
QEMAH will be too good for these today.Bet365 at Royal Ascot – £200 Matched Deposit, Live Stream Each Race & Best Odds Guaranteed
4:20 Prince of Wales Stakes:
This race the Group 1 Prince of Wales Stakes is the feature race of the day. It sees 8 runners go to post for what will be a 1 mile and 2 furlong race. Queen’s Trust, Decorated Knight and Ulysses are all decent horses and should run their races but this race looks a match between Highland Reel and Jack Hobbs.
Both are better horses over 2f further but the trip shouldn’t be too much of a problem for either. Highland Reel is a tremendous Group 1 performer and this horse has won all over the world.
This horse’s finest performance may have been in the Breeders Cup Turf at Santa Anita last November. She got a great ride from the front, set the right fractions and won easily from Arc winner Found and today’s rival Ulysses.
This horse has great tactical speed and also great stamina. This horse ran no sort of race on seasonal reappearance in Meydan in a race won by Jack Hobbs. The rain got into the ground then and it looked like the horse needed the run too.
This horse loves fast ground and came right back to his best when winning on its most recent start in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Epsom.
Again it was given a great ride from the front and won nicely. He’ll love todays ground where as Jack Hobbs isn’t proven on it.
He’s much prefer the ground to be on the soft side. I think that will prove the main factor in this race and for me HIGHLAND REEL will win this race at 5/2.
5:00 Royal Hunt Cup Handicap:
30 runners go to post for this cavalry charge which is due to be run over 1 mile. The trends suggest that the draw can play an important factor in this race as can age, weight, course form and price. Some key trends to look at: 14 of last 15 winners had won over at least 1 mile before. 12 of the 15 winners were aged 4 or 5 years old.
There have been 11 unplaced favourites in the past 15 years with 11 of the last 15 winners returning a double-figure price. The average winning SP for this race in the past 15 years is 16/1. 11 of the last 15 winners carried 9 stone 1lb or less. 8 of the last 15 winners were 4 year olds and 9 of the last 15 winners had course form. High number stalls have dominated in recent years with 9 of the last 11 winners coming from a double figure stall. 4 of the last 8 winners have come from stall 33.
To sum up, you need a horse with course form who carries less than 9-1, is drawn high and is a double figure price.
Using these trends I’ve narrowed the field down to 5 runners who I believe to have the best chance of winning.
They are Battle of Marathon, Bossy Guest, Another Touch, Fastnet Tempest and Abe Lincoln. Fastnet Tempest ran a nice race when 3rd in the Spring Cup over a mile.
Trip might have been too far then but has since won two handicaps over 7f including the Victoria Cup. This horse is clearly improving and his trainer has a decent record in the race. He is sure to run a nice race but there are slight doubts about this horse over this distance.
I think his optimum trip is 7f, a stiff mile today could just be too far. He is also much worse off with a few of the horses he finished in front of 3 and 2 runs ago. Another Touch and Bossy Guest could well reverse the placings with Fastnet Tempest today.
Another Touch is 9lb better off today factoring in it’s jockeys claim. This horse won nicely last time out and the runner up then ran a great race in a group 1 here yesterday. Bossy Guest was unlucky in this race last year off a 1lb higher mark.
He has also caught the eye this season in both of its runs. It finished fast in two starts behind Fastnet Tempest and was 15lb and 14lb worse off with it in those races.
He is now between 10 and 11lb better off with that horse at the weights.
Battle of Marathon comes from the popular stall 33 today and that alone is sure to give him a great chance based on trends. This horse was 5th in this race last year and only beaten just over 2l.
He was unlucky not to get closer as he got hampered 2f out. He’s 3lb lower in the ratings this season and his talented claimer takes a further 7lb off which means this horse can run off 10lb lower than last season.
This horse has form in group races and it would be no shock to me if this horse won this race at odds of 66/1. With some firms paying 6 places each way I think he is a decent bet.
Abe Lincoln ran a stormer when 2nd in the Britannia Handicap at this meeting last year.
This horse has not run since but has been a major gamble for this race up to a point. He has to cope with much better ground today though and it could stop it from winning. I do think though it will be bang there.
Outsiders usually win this race so I’m going to put up two selections and they are BOSSY GUEST 16/1 and BATTLE OF MARATHON at 66/1.
5:35 Sandringham Handicap:
This race is a 1 mile handicap for 3 year old fillies. This has always proven to be a tough race to pick a winner of and it’s no easier this time round with 24 runners going to post.
The trends for this race suggest that you want to be on a horse who is 12/1 or shorter, had between 2 to 4 runs this season, had won over 7f and those that carry 8 stone 11 or more.
Favourites have a very good record in this race also. This is a very open race and it does pay to follow the fancied ones in this race.
The favourite Gymnaste won nicely at Chester back in May and was very unlucky not to win last time out at Kempton where it didn’t get the clearest of runs.
Her trainer John Gosden won this race last year and I think with a clear run this one will go very close to winning. Rain Goddess for Aidan O’Brien looks the main danger.
This Galileo filly looks as if she’ll need further in time but the stiff finish and fast pace will help her greatly today. I can see her and Gymnaste fighting this out.
I’m going to side with GYMNASTE over Rain Goddess at 13/2. Tisbutadream who is 4 from 4 in handicaps could be an outsider with a frame chance.