Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Steeple Chase
After a gap of 34 yrs, Irish trained have won three of the last four.
Seven of the last eight winners had no placed chase New course form.
All 5 winners 2011 to 2015 plus the last four runners up had all been beaten in a New Course chase no later than the previous year’s Festival.
Only two of the last nine had won a Graded race
D Pipe trained three winners between 2010-2014. Since that he has had a top five finisher in each of the last five.
All bar Mister McGoldrick of the last 21 had run between 3 and 16 times over fences
No winners in the last 17 wearing any sort of headgear or BF last time out
The Storyteller and Salut Flo only winning favourites to win this century
(Calling it ‘The Mildmay’ is usually easier. In 2015 the race distance returned to 2m and abt 5f after one year at 2m 4f.)
Irish and Gigginstown runners bear the closest scrutiny especially if coming from Graded races.
Not carrying over 10st 13lb unless previous placed Festival form.
Rated between 130 and 147.
Winner not older than 10.
Older horses do get placed.
If backing a 10 yr old or older prefer one with placed course form.
Winner will have won at Class 3 level and at a distance between 2m3f and 2m5f. (We can assume this is a C3 Chase, and does not include hurdles?)
Will either have competed in a previous festival race or will have less than 12 chase runs.
Has run between 3 and 16 times over fences.
If out at all, will have run between 3 and 8 times this season or be Pipe trained.
Could have finished anywhere last time out.
May not have gained a place in this season’s on course 2m 5f Graded Handicap Chases .
Novice and a French Bred to gain place.
Watch for French Bred 6 yr olds.
No headgear wearers.
Consider D Pipe 12/1 and under and Venetia Williams.
Not P Nicholls.
Wasn’t beaten favourite last time.
Winner may have been given a ‘sighter’ (ie well beaten) in a course chase no later than last year’s Festival and has no New course placed form. Either that or has never run at the course before.
I used a couple of the RP stats to help whittle this down as the above wasn’t massively helpful in cutting the field.
– Carried No more than 10st13 (9/10)
– No More than 12 runs over fences (9/10)
– Rated below 147 (RP suggests 145, no contenders over 145 using the above anyway)
Louis’ Vac Pouch – 8yo
No win at C3 or above over fences, has previously competed at a festival but over hurdles.Otherwise fits the stats.
Has not competed at a festival before.
Not another Muddle
The above 4 fits the main stats. But we are also told to look for Irish horses coming back from Graded races, those are:
It’s a bit of a lottery. I’ll take both the Irish runners e/w.
Death Duty 0.5pts e/w 16/1 (5 places)
Snow Falcon 0.54ptas e/w 25/1 (5 places)