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JCB Triumph Hurdle Tips

As the first race of the meet on Cheltenham Gold Cup day, the Triumph Hurdle plays a big part in generating a rocking atmosphere for the main event and always provides a classy winner…

Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners going back to First Bout in 1985

Barry Geraghty has ridden 5 winners

21 mares priced 14/1 and under have run. 3 won, 8 others placed

7 of the last 8 winners ran in either the Spring or Finesse Hurdle last time out

Only two winners in 32 years had raced only once over hurdles in GB or Ire

Five of the last eight finished in first four in the February Leopardstown G1

11 of the last 15 from the front four in the market

Last 21 winners all last ran between 18 and 55 days before

Only two of the last 14 had their first hurdle run after 10th January

16 of the last 17 to have raced on the Flat, had raced at least at 1m 4 f

Summary

Race Distance – 2 miles and about a furlong.

Look for:

Started hurdle career between 20th October and 31st January.

Winner (if rated) will be at least 80 on the flat or placed in G1 hurdle.

All placed horses (if rated) should be over 70.

If ran on the flat was tried at some stage over 1m4f or has already won a G1 hurdle.

Won or placed at least G2 last time out.

No more than five runs over hurdles.

Will have won at least 50% of all hurdle starts.

Will be unbeaten in UK or IRE or have run at least three times over hurdles.

Last run between 19 and 55 days ago.

Irish trained coming to the fore.

N Henderson the man, G Elliott, Joseph O’Brien are doing well.

Not Pipe trained.

Difficulty in Closutton.

No headgear unless its the first time in NH races.

Any price.
Mares do well with their 7lb allowance.
French Breds to be watched.
Sire was a G1 winner.

Contenders:

Aspire Tower

A Wave Of The Sea

Cerberus

Note – No Henderson trained runners, nor G Elliott.

Only the 3 above ran in either the Spring or Finesse Hurdle last time out.
A Wave of The Sea fails the hurdles career start date. Positive that trained by Joseph, and has Barry G on board.
Aspire Tower fails the placed at least in G2 lto (fell in race won by awots)
Cerberus was not rated 80+ on flat (74), has run 5 times and won twice (<50% wins). Positive that trained by Joseph. Stats suggest: A Wave of The Sea My selection: A Wave of The Sea, 0.5pts e/w 14/1 (bet365, Hills, BetFred) Cerberus was all over Aspire Tower when he fell (poor jump), and actually looked like winning before A Wave of The Sea came with a wet sail up the run in to beat his stablemate who ended up 3rd. Both look overpriced, but the uphill finish will suit A Wave of The Sea more having outstayed stablemate.

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