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John Oaksey National Hunt Chase

The 160th year of National Hunt Steeplechase Challenge Cup

HEADLINES

15 from the last 17 aged 6, 7 or 8 years

3 of the last 5 had each already run in 10 chases

Eight of the last ten were chasing by 31st Oct.

Since becoming Graded, no winner with less than 3 chase runs.

No faller last time out has won in the last 30 years.

21 from last 23 placed 1st or 2nd in a chase over at least 3 miles
Last seven winners rated at least 143

9 of the last 10 had already competed in a Graded Chase

9 of the last 20 had already ran in handicap, and all nine were placed at least

No winner this century was a beaten favourite last time out

Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls yet to win

W Mullins/G Elliott have won five from the last nine

Since 1946, no jockey has won this three times. Mssrs Codd, Mullins and O’Connor on two winners each.

Summary

2020 Changes Race Distance down to 3m 6f, only 23 fences not 25. Horses must be rated at least 120 and have finished in the first four in a three mile chase. Jockeys must have had 20 rides and at least 5 winners. Derek O’Connor said that the changes were ‘pretty fair.’ Do for me.

Winner and placed to be aged 6 to 10 years.
If tried, should have been 1st or 2nd in a chase over at least 3 miles.
Ran in a chase by 4th November or has won a p2p.
Should have won a chase this season or is a second season novice.
Will have been first or second in either of its last two runs or have solid Festival form.
At least 5th last time completion.
Will have run at least four times over fences, or have won a G1 chase.
Don’t be fearful if your novice has run in 10+chases.
Will have finished 1st or 2nd in nothing shorter than a 2m 4f hurdle or have high class 2m hurdle form.
If given a hurdle RPR, it is above 119.
If previously tried in handicap chase company, has been placed.
If ran here, has been placed here.
Doesn’t have to have raced here before.
Winner rated 143+.
Likely to have contested at least a G2 Chase or a Grade A handicap chase.
Irish trained well out perform their numbers.
Respect G Elliott and W Mullins.
D Pipe often placed in this race, Nicholls and Henderson stables have had difficulty here.
Nicholls runners tend to be too short in price.
Could be any price and ridden by top Irish amateur.
Favourite becoming due.
Headgear possible.
Not beaten favourite last time.
Check Newbury and Warwick Nov Chase form.
More than likely that the winner of one of the next Ladbroke Trophy, Irish, Scottish or Welsh Nationals is in the field but doesn’t win this.
Check Navan form 17th February and The Reynoldstown.
Watch for a mare with Listed winning chase form not just against own sex.

Contenders:

Carefully selected, 8yo
– Less than 4 runs over fences, no G1 win
– Not contested G2, or Grade A handicap
+ Mullins Trained
+ Ran in Graded chase
+ Won lto
+ RPR 164 / Chase RPR 156
+ Won 2m6f hurdle

Forza Milan, 8yo
– Not contested G2, or Grade A handicap
+ Irish trained
+ over 4 chase starts
+ 2nd lto
+ RPR 151 / Chase RPR 143
+2nd in 3m hurdle

Lord Du Mensil, 7yo

– Not contested G2, or Grade A handicap
– Not irish trained
+ won chase this season
+ 2nd lto in 3m4f chase

Smoking Gun, 7yo
– Chase RPR 138
– Beaten fav lto
+ Contested Grade A handicap
+ won chase this season, 2nd last start
+ won over 3m1f
+ Irish trained

Stats Suggest:

Forza Milan, Carefully Selected

My selection:
Carefully Selected 1pt win, 2/1
Lord Du Mensil 0.5pts e/w 5/1 (4 places)

Mullins has a good record in the race and the fact his runner Carefully Selected is 3/3 over fences and beat the stats suggestion Forza Milan by 4 lengths when they met at Naas, and was giving 6lb away that day, It’s hard to see that form being turned around. Lord Du Mensil was caught close home at Haydock but had previously got a hattrick of wins in handicaps. He stays all day and if kept hold of until late he will stay up the hill and hopefully pass a few.

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