The last five winners either ‘made all’ or ‘tracked leaders’.
No six yr old winner in the last 11, not many try.
Last twelve winners had all raced at a previous Festival
None of the last eleven more than four previous runs that season
Nine of the last twelve had already won a G1 chase
11 of the last 12 were rated 161+
None of the last three contested that season’s King George
Before Frodon, Irish trained 1-2 in each of the previous three years
Ten the last twelve were course winners
Six of the last seven were aged seven or eight years
The sponsor has won it once
Race Distance – 2 miles and abt 5 furlongs. Upgraded to Grade 1 in 2008. All carry 11st 10lbs. Mares get 7lbs. Nearly £200k to the winner
Usually need winning and top quality course chase form in order to win or be second.
Unless a legend will be a second season chaser aged 7 or 8 yrs.
No recent Ascot Chase or Peterborough Chases double since 2013 but Ascot Chase winners rarely come now.
Not more than 4 runs since October.
Top three finish last time unless unplaced in King George or first time headgear.
Winner to be rated 160+.
Has won at least one G1 race or at least one major handicap.
All placed at least rated 155.
Not blinkered all the time or beaten fav last time.
Being ‘up with the pace’ or ‘tracking leaders’ has been important.
Difficult to make too much of the stats really. Only one horse rated under 160 OR.
Can whittle it down to around 4:
A Plus Tard
Riders on The Storm
Ridersonthestorm has no top quality chase course form – ran here once, fell.
Min has no chase course win/form, does not fit age criteria but would be considered a legend.
Frodon won this last season.
A Plus Tard won Listed Chase at festival last season, negative that is only 6yo, ‘tracked leaders’ to win lto.
A Plus Tard, 1pt win 7/2
My heart tells me to back Min, just like it did Honeysuckle on Tuesday. But if Chacun Pour Soi beats Defi in the Champion Chase, especially if in good style, A Plus Tard has to have a massive chance. He beat Chacun fairly easily lto and may just have too much for Min who will be taken on for the lead by Frodon and may burn each other out. A great contest.