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Supreme Novices Hurdle Tips

The Supreme Novices Hurdle is always a fascinating and pulsating betting heat. Punters love getting stuck into the so-called ‘good thing’ at the head of the market.

But what way will this year’s hot-pot go?

Supreme Novices Hurdle Stats

  • The last 11 winners were all 5 or 6 yr olds.
  • 10 of the last 11 winners had all run at least 4 times over hurdles (plus Labaik).
  • No horse wearing any type of headgear has won this since Flown 1992.
  • The Betfair Hurdle winner has yet to win this.
  • Champagne Fever ’13 is the only Champion Bumper winner to double up since Montelado ’93. 5 of the last 6 bumper winners to try, all beaten at under 9/1.
  • Last eight winners had all won a Graded novice hurdle.
  • 16 of the last 17 had won at least 50% of all hurdle starts in UK and Ire.
  • In six of the last seven, W Mullins has trained at least one horse to finish in the first two. Has won this 6 times.
  • In the last six, seven horses came to the race with a BHA Rating of at least 154. Four won and two others were placed.

Supreme Novices Hurdle Form

  • Aged 5 or 6 yrs.
  • Has won at least once over hurdles.
  • Won last time out or was a short priced beaten favourite.
  • Has won at least 50% of all hurdle starts in UK and Ire.
  • Ran in the last 66 days or unbeaten over hurdles.
  • At least 4 previous hurdle runs. At least 5 total runs as a racehorse.
  • Will be trained in Ireland or by N Henderson.
  • If ran on the Flat, must have won at least G3 Novice hurdle.
  • Graded win this season.
  • Previous course form not vital but if has run before on the course, should have won or gone close. Last run was in a novice hurdle and not an all aged graded or a handicap.
  • No headgear.
  • If Irish trained, can be any price.
  • Watch for any horse who starts under 10/1 and ran in last years Champion Bumper.
  • 4 yr olds and mares a rarity.
  • Strongly consider G1 winner at the DRF and Tolworth.

Supreme Novices Hurdle Tips

Envoi Allen – 161 – 6 yo (now a definite NR)
– 5/6 previous bumper winners failed under 9/1.
– 3 Hurdle runs
– Not trained by mullins or Henderson
– ran more than 66 days ago
+ Won G1 Novice Hurdle lto
+ Won over course
+ unbeaten over hurdles
+ Irish Trained

Shiskin – 161 – 6yo
– 3 hurdle runs
– No graded wins this season
+ Henderson trained
+ Ran within 66 days
+ Won 50% of hurdle starts

Asterion Forlonge – 163 – 6yo
– 2 hurdle runs
– 4 lifetime runs
+ Unbeaten over hurdles
+ G1 Novice hurlde winner lto

Abacadabras – 158 – 6yo
– Trainer profile (mullins/Henderson)
– 74 days since last run, not unbeaten
+ Irish trained
+ 4 hurdle runs
+ G1 Novice hurdle winner lto
+ Course form
+ Won 50% of hurdle starts

Fiddlerontheroof – 159 – 6yo
– Trainer profile (Mullins/Henderson/irish)
– last run more than 66 days ago
+ Won G1 Novice hurdle lto
+ Won Tolworth hurdle lto
+ Won 50% of hurdle starts

Chantry House – 147 – 6yo
– Rated under 154
– 2 hurdles races
+ course winner
+ Trainer Profile (Henderson)
+ unbeaten over hurdles
+ 5 total runs

Captain Guiness – 154 – 5yo
– 2 lifetime runs
+ Won 50% of hurdle starts

Stats suggest:
Abracadabras or Fiddlerontheroof

My selection:

1pt win Abacadabras, 6/1
What a cracking race. I don’t see Envoi running here, Elliott said he would switch if there was heavy in the going description and at present it’s soft. Yes, there is rain scheduled, but not enough to change the present going so soft it is. Abacadabras fits a lot of the profiles, has course form (boosted by Envoi Allen multiple times including when beaten again by EA) and he’s the one that sticks out to me as the most likely winner – if we ignore the Mullins stronghold for the past 7 years. If you can wait and back with sky they are offering a measly £10 back or something, I cant remember exactly what it is and it’s no longer on my sky bet account.

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