Dan Skelton has trained three of the last four winners
Irish Trained have won six of the last ten, Willie Mullins with four.
15 of the last 17 were either novices or second season hurdlers
Only two course winners have won since 1991. Both were second season novices.
12 of last 14 all rated between 128 and 139
12 of the last 14 achieved their best RPR of at least 129 on a left handed track.
Thumbs Up ’93 was the last h’cap debutant to win.
12 of the last 14 achieved best RPR within their last three runs.
Only Arctic Fire this century had finished in the first 5 at the Festival.
Clear favourite hasn’t won since 2004
Race Distance – 2 miles and abt a furlong.
Winner will be aged 5 or 6 yrs, or a novice, or else placed in Boylesports/Betfair Hurdle/G1.
Not finished in first five in previous Festival race.
No more than second season over hurdles or else Skelton/Mullins trained.
If full handicap, will carry under 11st 1lb unless finished 1st or 2nd in a Class 1 Handicap Hurdle.
Not more than 1lb out of the handicap.
Will have had at least three previous runs this season unless W Mullins.
Between 4 and 19 previous runs over hurdles.
Will be rated between 128 and 139 unless Skelton/Mullins.
No headgear unless Nicholls/Mullins.
Either Irish/Nicholls/Skelton trained.
Not a previous course winner unless called Back On The Lash.
Not a handicap debutante.
If P Nicholls winner, has been beaten here in a hurdle.
May already have ran in a top hurdle race this season.
Don’t back a conditional who has yet to win at least Class 2 level.
Has a best RPR of at least 129 on a left handed track.
Pay attention to the Skelton runners, Bryan.
Ciel De Neige
You Raised Me Up
Tiger Tap Tap
All bar you raised me up are 5 or 6, have a best RPR of at least 129 on a left handed track, Irish Trained, rated between 128 and 139, Not a previous course winner, Not a Hcap Debutant, Between 4 and 19 previous runs over hurdles, not carrying more than 11st1, Not finished in first five in previous Festival race.
Stats have actually omitted the only Skelton runner because of age which is a bit silly given he’s won 3 of the last 4.
Ciel De Neige, 0.5pts e/w 7/1 (5 places)
Sky, 888, Fred & Betway all play 6 places so use those if you can – still 7/1.
A lightly raced 5yo that gets in off a reasonable weight of 11st1 (top weight here 11st 12). He made his debut for Mullins in the Fred Winter last year finishing a credible 3rd. Seasonal re-appearance at Fairyhouse he finished 4th of 15, no doubt needed the run. Has since filled the runner-up spot twice – most recently in a good prize handicap at Newbury where he was always staying on at the finish, which should help him up the hill.
Would be silly to ignore the Skelton runner so we will have Mohaayed 0.5pts e/w at 10/1