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Supreme Novices Hurdle

The first proper debate of the night was the Supreme, framed as a deep renewal with plenty of angles and no obvious Mullins superstar dominating the market.

Old Park Star was installed as the favourite, with Talk To Talk and El Kyros close behind, and a lot of interest around Mighty Park who had been expected to head to the Turners earlier in the season. The audience vote on where Mighty Park would run came back split, which told its own story. Nobody inside the room sounded certain, and the panel leaned heavily on vibes and race shape rather than claiming anything concrete.

There was also chatter about Talk To Talk being potentially for sale, with figures being thrown around in the seven figure range. It was presented as rumour rather than fact, but it added a bit of spice to the Supreme conversation because it raised the idea of ownership changes and target switches.

Tony was cautious about coronations and brushed off the “next Altior” type of talk. His angle was that this looked one of the deepest Supremes for a while, and with so many runners likely, he wanted substance and form that suggested the horse would finish strongly.

His selection was Idaho Sun, presented as an each way play, especially if there is cut in the ground. Tony referenced last season’s bumper and the way Idaho Sun finished off, then leaned on his hurdle runs as solid evidence rather than hype. He also pushed back on the idea that My Daddy Patty would automatically reverse form under different conditions, arguing Idaho Sun looked the stronger finisher and deserved plenty of respect.

Steven went much more direct. He felt Old Park Star has set the standard and is likely to improve again. He also came with strong negatives.

He was firmly against El Kyros because of jumping, describing him as a horse who can skim and clout hurdles, which is not an ideal trait for a big field Supreme where speed and rhythm matter.

Steven also threw in a lively outsider in Blake at a huge price. The argument was that Blake has the ability of a smart flat horse and could get closer with better ground and a more controlled run. He suggested Noel Meade does not send many to Cheltenham unless he thinks they can run well, and framed Blake as a speculative swing rather than a confident pick.

Mikey arrived to congratulations as the room learned he is getting married, then got straight into the race. He did not sound convinced by Mighty Park as a Supreme type, suggesting he looks more like a chaser and that strong gallop pressures can expose unfinished novices.

He broadly sided with the favourite as the most solid option, but he also echoed Tony’s point that Idaho Sun is a big player if the ground is soft. Mikey’s tone was practical rather than flashy, with a reminder that plenty of horses work well in the lead up to Cheltenham and it does not always translate when the tapes go up.

Gary brought the most colourful rumour of the night, saying he heard in an Irish bar in Malta that JP had made a big bid for Mighty Park which was knocked back, and that Talk To Talk was also being talked about in large numbers. He presented it as information he trusted, but it was still clearly second hand.

On the race itself, Gary took a different tactical stance. He wanted to oppose the favourite, arguing the Supreme could turn into a tear up where too many want to go forward and they could take each other on. His pick was El Kyros, with the view that if the early fractions are fierce, a horse with a serious turn of foot can travel into it and then put the race to bed once meeting the last.

David Mullins was confidently in the El Kyros camp. He dismissed the concerns about jumping, saying he had seen enough to believe it is good enough, and framed the Leopardstown mistake at the last as the kind of thing you can forgive rather than a defining flaw.

His biggest positive was El Kyros’s gears. He also gave a strong steer on Mighty Park, saying he expects him to run in the Turners. He admitted he did not know for sure, but the strength of the statement suggested a firm instinct at minimum.

Darragh closed the Supreme segment by backing Old Park Star in emphatic terms. He described him as a potential superstar and argued the pace set by horses like Sober Glory and Mossy Fen Road could create a proper old fashioned Supreme where stamina and class decide it.

He pushed back on any suggestion Old Park Star is slow, pointing to the demands of winning around a tight inside track and the speed needed to travel and jump efficiently there. His view was that Old Park Star can sit close enough to the pace, apply pressure at the right time and then outstay the speedier types rather than being caught behind them.

Where the debate landed

By the end of the section, the room was split into clear camps.

Old Park Star supporters leaned on solidity, standard setting form and the idea he can sit handy and stay strongly.

El Kyros supporters leaned on the tear up scenario, believing his turn of foot can win the Supreme if the pace melts rivals.

Idaho Sun advocates leaned on value and ground, viewing him as the each way horse who could be underestimated if conditions suit.

Arkle Challenge Trophy

This year’s Arkle Novices’ Chase is shaping up to be one of the most debated races of the entire Cheltenham Festival, with no odds-on favourite and a fiercely split panel of opinions. The two at the head of the market Lulamba and Kopek Des Bordes have dominated the ante-post discussion, but neither arrives without question marks. Lulamba is widely viewed as the solid option, battle-hardened and proven under race conditions, while Kopek Des Bordes has the raw ability but lacks experience, having had just one run over fences and missing key intended targets. For some, that inexperience could prove decisive around Cheltenham’s demanding Old Course.

Much of the concern surrounding Kopek centres on whether a single outing provides enough preparation for a race as relentless as the Arkle. While history shows that lightly raced horses can win it, they are the exception rather than the rule. Cheltenham’s unique test particularly the pace into the early fences and the stiff finish can expose any chinks in jumping or temperament. There are also lingering doubts about whether Kopek has had the ideal preparation after an interrupted campaign.

Lulamba, by contrast, is seen as the most likely winner by several judges, though not necessarily outstanding value at a short price. His supporters argue that he is the most complete horse in the field and possesses the class to cope with the race tempo. Critics, however, question whether he has the sheer speed for a sub-two-mile test and point to moments this season where he has looked vulnerable before staying on strongly late.

Behind the front two, the race opens up considerably. Irish Panther has been put forward as a lively outsider, particularly if the ground dries. A strong traveller with plenty of pace, he could attempt to stretch the field from the front and make this a proper speed test. His supporters believe he represents significant value at double-figure odds and argue that, trained by Eddie and Patrick Harty, he would be much shorter in the betting if housed in one of the sport’s powerhouse yards.

Kappa Jy Pyke is another attracting each-way support. His previous Cheltenham experience, combined with a sharp turn of foot shown in graded company, suggests he could be suited by dropping back in trip. There is a view that the likely strong early gallop could play into his hands if he is delivered late. With multiple front-runners potentially cutting each other’s throats up front, the race could set up for something ridden patiently.

Steel Ally has also been mentioned as a potential beneficiary should the contest become attritional. His jumping technique has drawn praise, and in a novice chase where mistakes are almost guaranteed, slick fencing could prove invaluable. If the leaders overdo it early, he may be one to pick up the pieces in the closing stages.

Overall, the 2026 Arkle looks anything but straightforward. Questions over ground conditions, preparation, pace dynamics and the relative strength of the Irish and British novice form lines have left seasoned observers divided. Unlike many recent renewals, there is no standout banker and that uncertainty is precisely what makes this year’s Arkle such a compelling betting heat.

Champion Hurdle

The Champion Hurdle has developed into one of the most complicated puzzles of this year’s Cheltenham Festival, with the market reshuffled and no standout certainty at the head of affairs. The New Lion has been installed as the 2 to 1 favourite, with Brighterdaysahead close behind and Lossiemouth also prominent in the betting. Yet confidence behind any one of them is far from unanimous, and the race has divided opinion more than most.

The New Lion has attracted strong support from some quarters who believe he has the highest ceiling of ability in the field. His run in the Fighting Fifth divided observers, particularly after a late fall when still travelling strongly, but supporters argue he had Golden Ace covered at the time. His most recent outing was viewed by some as a schooling exercise designed to sharpen his jumping, and there is a belief that his raw talent could come to the fore in a championship pace scenario.

Not everyone is convinced. Critics point to his hurdling technique, noting that he can be deliberate at his obstacles and may not get away with that in a true Champion Hurdle run at full throttle. There are also questions about the depth of the form around him and whether he has achieved enough to justify favouritism in such an open renewal. For those opposing him, the price is seen as short in a race full of variables.

Brighterdaysahead is viewed by some as the one with the strongest recent form, yet her previous runs at Cheltenham raise concerns. She has failed to produce her best at the track and there is a suspicion that the undulations or atmosphere may not suit her. Others argue there were valid excuses on those occasions and maintain that, on pure ability, she sets a high standard if she handles conditions on the day.

Lossiemouth remains a major talking point, though doubts persist about whether she will even line up. If she does take her chance, her Cheltenham record commands respect and her two mile form is solid. However, uncertainty over targets has clouded her position in the market and left punters second guessing connections’ intentions.

Further down the field, the likes of Anzadam and Poniros have been mentioned as potential value plays in what many consider a below average renewal. There is a feeling that the overall depth of the division is not especially strong this season, which only adds to the unpredictability. In truth, this year’s Champion Hurdle looks wide open, with credible arguments both for and against the leading contenders and no obvious banker emerging from the debate.

Turners Novice Hurdle

The Turners Novices’ Hurdle is being sold as a race where confidence is thin at the top of the market and where the shape of the contest could encourage a major upset. Mighty Park is introduced as the early favourite, but the big caution is that he is trying to do something that is notoriously difficult at the Festival, which is arriving with very limited hurdling experience and still being expected to win a Grade 1 in what could be a huge field. That uncertainty is amplified by the point that even talented horses can be found out at Cheltenham if they have not had enough races to teach them how to cope with pressure, position, and mistakes when everything happens at speed.

A major theme in the discussion is distrust in how the Mullins yard has assessed its novice hurdlers through the season, with examples given of jockey choices that seemed to misread the pecking order on the day. That feeds into the idea that this division is hard to weigh up and that the market may not be as reliable as usual, especially in a race where many will want to take their chance. The expectation of a packed line up matters too, because the bigger the field, the more likely it is that luck in running and race position becomes a decisive factor.

Tony Keenan leans into that uncertainty by arguing for a scattergun approach towards bigger prices, highlighting Zeus Power, Road Exile and Sortudo as horses who could be underestimated if the race turns chaotic. Zeus Power is mentioned as a horse with enough ability to get himself out of trouble in a sharp contest, Road Exile is presented as one who could take a step forward with a different set up, and Sortudo is treated as the kind of runner who might have been underestimated because his best run came at a time when the stable’s overall form was not at its peak.

The outsider momentum continues with Kocktail Brute, who is put forward as a classic sleeper pick for a race like this, with the argument that his Christmas effort can be forgiven and that he has pieces of form that suggest a step up in trip could bring out improvement. Hurricane Patrick is also mentioned as a speculative play at a big price, based on the belief that his latest run did not represent his true ability and that his stronger performance at Sandown hints at a higher level than his recent form suggests.

Despite all the talk of rags, the conversation repeatedly swings back to the idea that the most reliable option may be No Drama This End. The case for him is built on his proven Cheltenham experience, his straightforward racing style, and the sense that he consistently does what is asked of him without showing any of the volatility that can derail a novice in a Festival Grade 1. While some question what he has beaten, the counter is that plenty of rivals have bigger reputations than evidence, and that his profile looks much safer than a short priced horse attempting to win on a second start.

Sir Tudo also gains serious traction as the debate goes on, to the point where he is labelled by one voice as the best novice hurdler in the yard this season. That is used as a headline style line and it reinforces the idea that, if he lines up here, he could be a significant player even if the market is still treating him like an each way option. Alongside that, Active Innocence is mentioned as a horse already backed by one of the speakers, with the suggestion that he has been campaigned with education in mind and has the class to step forward when the stakes rise at Cheltenham.

The final takeaway from the Turners segment is that this race is not being treated as a straightforward betting heat in any direction. There is scepticism about short prices, appetite for multiple outsiders, and a growing respect for No Drama This End as the one who has already shown the temperament and track suitability required for a Festival novice hurdle.

Champion Chase

The Champion Chase section quickly becomes a debate about whether Majborough deserves to be a short priced favourite, or whether his Leopardstown performance is flattering him at a track and in a set up that suited him perfectly. Tony Keenan accepts the clock was impressive but wonders if Majborough was helped by racing in the right part of the track during the Dublin Racing Festival, and he keeps coming back to the fact that the horse had produced several patchy jumping displays before the latest run. From that angle, the cheekpieces are treated as an important variable because if they have genuinely sharpened him up, he could be a different proposition, but if the old jumping habits return at Cheltenham then the price starts to look far less appealing.

Marine Nationale is treated as the obvious alternative, yet opinions split on whether there is value in backing him off a heavy defeat. Tony suggests he would have expected a bigger drift in the market after being beaten by a wide margin, and that leaves him leaning towards sitting the race out because he cannot see much juice in either of the top two in the betting. Others are more positive about Marine Nationale and argue that Cheltenham is where he consistently brings his best, with one speaker pushing back strongly against the suggestion that he has a hole in him at the track. The point is made that he has already won twice at Cheltenham, and there is also the view that he was likely to beat Quilixios last year, which strengthens the belief that he is simply a better horse in this setting than he is elsewhere.

Lotus Soot is brought into the discussion as the practical angle, framed as the runner you can trust to show up, travel and jump, even if he might lack the raw class of the market leaders. The case for him is built on reliability rather than brilliance, with the view that he is likely to be tuned up for the day and that he can run into the frame if conditions suit, especially if the ground comes up softer. That makes him the each way and place play for those who do not want to take a short price about a horse with jumping doubts, or take on the risk of Marine Nationale having another unpredictable moment.

There is also a sharp disagreement about how much to take from trainer talk, particularly around the idea that Majborough jumps brilliantly at home. One contributor dismisses that as nonsense and argues that schooling form does not always translate into race day jumping, especially at Champion Chase pace when mistakes become far more costly. That scepticism feeds into the broader point that Majborough is undeniably talented, but trusting him at a short price is difficult when his record includes notable errors and when the Cheltenham test is the same course and distance where he made serious mistakes before.

By the end, the panel is split along clear lines. Gary is firmly in the Majborough camp if he reproduces his Dublin Racing Festival form, Steven leans towards Leau du Sud as the dependable one to run his race, and Tony prefers to sit it out rather than force a bet at the prices. Mikey is strongly pro Marine Nationale, arguing he can win well if conditions suit, while another view lands on Marine Nationale too, with a small mention for Quilixios depending on how the market reacts. Overall it is presented as a race where the favourite might simply outclass them if he jumps cleanly, but where the uncertainty around jumping and value means plenty are looking elsewhere or keeping their powder dry.

Stayers Hurdle

The Stayers’ Hurdle debate centres on whether Teahupoo deserves to head the market at a short price or whether this is the year to side with a younger improver. Teahupoo’s supporters point to his consistency at the highest level and the fact that he has repeatedly run to a mark that puts him right in the mix. The key variable is ground. There is a strong statistical case that both he and his yard perform markedly better when conditions are genuinely soft or worse, and that his edge diminishes as the surface dries out. That makes him highly ground dependent rather than bombproof at 13 to 8.

Bob Olinger is the obvious alternative for many if the ground turns good. The argument is that he is ageing well, retains plenty of ability, and showed last year that he can outclass Teahupoo in the right circumstances. There is a feeling that he is the type of horse who thrives in the spring and that his class still burns bright when conditions suit. For those expecting decent ground, he is viewed as a major player once again.

Behind them, Honesty Policy has his supporters as a younger stayer who could step forward again, though there is pushback from those who feel he has not conclusively proven he should turn the tables on rivals he has met already. Crambo is another who divides opinion, particularly regarding stamina at this trip.

The overarching theme is that this looks like a renewal in transition. Many of the runners are nine or older, and that encourages the view that siding with a progressive profile makes sense. Teahupoo remains respected, especially if the ground comes up soft, but if conditions dry out there is a strong belief that either Bob Olinger’s class or the upward trajectory of the younger improver could decide the race.

Cheltenham Gold Cup

The Cheltenham Gold Cup is presented as wide open, with the market led by Fact To File but with very little confidence that any one runner deserves to dominate the betting.

The discussion begins with Tony Keenan admitting the race has “melted” his head, and he quickly pours cold water on using the King George as a key piece of evidence, arguing that Kempton and Cheltenham are such different tests that the form line might not translate cleanly.

That sets the tone for a debate built around doubts, small angles, and the idea that this is a Gold Cup where you can make a case for plenty.

Tony’s strongest lean is towards I Know The Way You’re Thinking, a horse he does not want to see winning but one he cannot ignore after three unlucky runs and growing whispers that he is coming right at the perfect time.

There is a sense that the stable is starting to sound more positive and that the market has been quietly moving in his direction on the exchanges, which only adds to the feeling that he might suddenly reappear as a major player. It is a reluctant vote rather than a confident one, but it is rooted in the belief that his best recent staying performance may still be the best piece of form in the race if he can reproduce it.

Steven Cass is more willing to put faith in the King George, siding with The Jukebox Man on the basis of class and jumping.

He focuses on how well the horse travelled, how he handled pressure at the business end, and how a brief moment of slowness at the last did not stop him from finishing strongly in a dramatic finish.

The view is that he could be the one still in front jumping the last in the Gold Cup, and that the question is simply whether he can then find enough up the hill, but at the price he is seen as worth chancing.

Mikey is cooler on Gallopin Des Champs, despite knowing him well, and does not sound convinced the old sparkle will return. He narrows his focus to three, Django Bay, Hatti Collars, and Grey Dawning, before making Django Bay the one he fears most. The main reason is the engine he saw in action when the horse picked up instantly off the bridle at Ascot, which is described as the sort of acceleration that separates the best from the rest. Mikey also likes that Django Bay looks the right age and has the class to cope with a properly run Gold Cup if the ground is on the good side.

Gary also treats the race as one where anything can win, but he does at least nail his colours to a big price angle by backing Envoi Allen for the places.

The argument is that he loves Cheltenham, he will be primed to peak, and he has the class to creep into the race late if they go hard enough up front. He is not bothered by the age angle, and frames it as a final throw at the stumps where everything will be geared towards one big day.

Both David and Dear swing the conversation towards a late move for Spelain’s Tower, with both describing him as more impressive on a rewatch than they first thought. The angle is that he looked a beast travelling into the race, that Jack Kennedy appeared to look after him rather than empty the tank, and that his campaign has been messy enough that there may still be improvement left to come.

Dear also places heavy weight on Kennedy being on board, viewing him as the best jockey around and someone you want in a Gold Cup where timing and judgement matter, and he ends by admitting to a full U turn away from Django Bay after reassessing what the horse has actually achieved.

By the time the panel wraps up, the picture is of a Gold Cup with multiple plausible narratives rather than a single obvious answer. Fact To File sets the initial headline as market leader, but the conversation itself is shaped by alternatives, with I Know The Way You’re Thinking flagged as the one the money might find, The Jukebox Man backed for his class and jumping, Django Bay praised for his engine and profile, and Spelain’s Tower emerging as a strong value case if Jack Kennedy is indeed on him and there is more to come.